UPDATED: April 27, 2021 12:40 IST
The covid-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if no social distancing measures are followed, the government said on Monday. The government also reiterated that social distancing and the use of masks remain the essential measures to prevent the spread of Covid-19 infection.
Addressing a news conference, Lav Agrawal, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, cited studies to buttress the point.
He said many universities have researched that if a Covid-19 positive person does not follow the social distancing measures, then in 30 days the “person can infect 406 people”. If a Covid-19 patient reduces his exposure by 50 per cent, the person can infect 15 people in 30 days, he said.
If both the Covid-19 positive and uninfected persons wear masks, “the chance of getting infected is 1.5 per cent.
“If the infected person reduces physical exposure by 50 per cent, then it has been found that 15 people are infected instead of 406. If the infected person reduces the physical exposure by 75 per cent, then the same [infected] person can infect 2.5 people in 30 days,” Agrawal said.
Lav Agrawal stressed that while it is necessary on one hand that there should be a focus on clinical management, on the other hand, the focus must be on controlling the spread of Covid-19. He re-emphasised the use of masks.
If the infected person reduces physical exposure by 50%, then 15 people are infected instead of 406. If the infected person reduces the physical exposure by 75%, then the same [infected] person can infect 2.5 people in 30 days.
“Study shows that if we are at a distance of six feet, even then there is a chance of a Covid positive person transmitting the virus to an uninfected person. You can find this situation at home in case of home isolation cases. If masks are not used properly, then there is a 90 per cent chance of an infected person infecting an uninfected person,” he said.
He said if an uninfected person wears a mask and a Covid-19 positive person does not wear one, there is a 30 per cent chance of infecting the uninfected person. If both the Covid-19 positive and uninfected persons wear masks, “the chance of getting infected is 1.5 per cent”.
“Couple this with a six feet distance between two people, then there is negligible risk of the spread of the infection across two people,” Agrawal said.