Moves are made to prepare the country for utility outages as malicious technological threats intensify.
The Swedish government’s checklist for surviving a war would not have
looked out of place decades ago: bottled water, sleeping bags, extra batteries; enough cash for a week; and non-perishable food such as rice and cereal.
Without being mentioned in name, Russia once more lurks in the background as it
did during the Cold War. But the nature of the threat it poses in the pamphlet, called
“In case of crisis or war”, has changed.
Alongside raising the possibility of “an armed attack against Sweden”, the guide also
mentions “cyber-attacks” and “disinformation campaigns.”.
As well as coping with the threat of nuclear conflict or an armed border incursion,
Europe must now contend with a very 21st-century foe: cyberwarfare.
Richard Horne, the head of the National Cyber Security Centre, will say on Tuesday
that “the severity of the risk facing the UK” from countries like Russia and China “is
being widely underestimated”.
Horne will make the warning as the NCSC reveals a significant increase in serious
cyber-incidents over the past 12 months.
Last week a British minister outlined the potential consequences of Russia’s already
active cyber-operations spilling into more serious areas. “Cyberwar can be
destabilising and debilitating. With a cyberattack, Russia can turn the lights on for
millions of people,” said Pat McFadden, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
The countries on the frontline of a potential conflict have all urged citizens to
prepare for electricity cuts. The Swedish pamphlet, reissued this month, references coping with power outages, as does a recent “emergency preparedness” guide from the Norwegian government. The Finnish advice refers to cyber-attacks causing a “long power outage,”, and Denmark refers to various crises,
including a digital assault, causing “loss of utilities.”.
Experts say the Russian cyber threat should be taken seriously, even if a devastating
attack on national infrastructure could invoke Nato’s mutual defence clause – which
could make Moscow hesitate.
“I would take his warning seriously. I don’t think it’s hyperbole,” said Dan Marks.
research fellow for energy security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi)
thinktank. “Having said that, the UK grid is pretty resilient. There is potential for
Russia does damage and causes problems, but the grid is resilient. It has
been designed to cope with stresses and threats.”
Every major organisation in the UK should have a plan for a cyber-attack hitting key
infrastructure, according to Ciaran Martin, the former head of the UK’s National
Cyber Security Centre.
“Every organisation should have a plan to deal with losing a major
infrastructure network. The difference between being 50% functional within 24
Hours of an attack and being one for a fortnight is huge,” he said.
McFadden’s speech referred to wider Russian cyber-interference in the UK, warning
that Moscow has “targeted our media, our telecoms, our political and democratic
institutions, and our energy infrastructure.”.
Dan Black, a principal analyst in the cyber espionage team at Mandiant, a Google-owned cybersecurity rm, said Russia stepped up its cyber-aggression towards the UK and other Nato members once it became clear the war in Ukraine would become
an attritional slog.
“That’s when you started to see the dimensions of the cyber-conflict creep
outside Ukraine and into wider Europe and Nato countries,” he said.
Evidence of that creep was revealed in September when Western intelligence
agencies said a unit of Russia’s military intelligence service was carrying out a
campaign of “malicious cyber-activity” against the government and critical
infrastructure organisations around the world.
It said Unit 29155 had targeted organisations to “collect information for espionage
purposes, caused reputational harm by the theft and leaking of sensitive
information, defaced victim websites and undertook systematic sabotage that caused
by the destruction of data.”
Given the threat of attacks affecting utilities, the recently updated crisis guides understandably refer to stockpiling food and
other essentials. But they also refer to warding off hackers and spotting online disinformation, which are modern tools of state actors seeking to cause disruption.
Russia is a hub for ransomware gangs, which hack and lock up the computer
systems of targets ranging from schools and hospitals to private companies and
then demand payment to restore IT networks and return stolen data. Although the
ransomware criminals are independent operations; some of them are known to have
links to the Russian state, which tolerates their presence in the country.
The Swedish pamphlet recommends using strong passwords at home and at work,
while Norway’s guidance urges citizens to “check information sources, and consider
the credibility of information you pass on to others”.
Evidence of that creep was revealed in September when Western intelligence
agencies said a unit of Russia’s military intelligence service was carrying out a
campaign of “malicious cyber-activity” against the government and critical
infrastructure organisations around the world.
It said Unit 29155 had targeted organisations to “collect information for espionage
purposes, caused reputational harm by the theft and leaking of sensitive
information, defaced victim websites and undertook systematic sabotage that caused
by the destruction of data.”
Given the threat of attacks affecting utilities, the recently updated crisis guides understandably recommend stockpiling food and other essentials. But they also recommend warding off hackers and spotting online disinformation, which are modern tools of state actors seeking to cause disruption.
Russia is a hub for ransomware gangs, which hack and lock up the computer
systems of targets ranging from schools and hospitals to private companies and
then demand payment to restore IT networks and return stolen data. Although the
ransomware criminals are independent operations; some of them are known to have
links to the Russian state, which tolerates their presence in the country.
The Swedish pamphlet recommends using strong passwords at home and work.
while Norway’s guidance urges citizens to “check information sources and consider
the credibility of information you pass on to others.”.
“One of the aims of Russian activity below the threshold of war, like cyber-attacks, is
to spread fear, panic, and discord. The best response is to be psychologically resilient and not go out into the street and buy all the toilet paper in Sainsbury’s.”
