India Q2 GDP Growth 2024 Live Updates: India’s GDP growth slows to seven quarter low of 5.4%

India GDP Growth 2024 Live: The Real GVA for H1 of 2024-25 stood at ₹81.30 lakh crore, exhibiting a 6.2% growth from ₹76.54 lakh crore in H1, 2023-24. Similarly, the Nominal GVA in H1 of 2024-25 amounted to ₹139.78 lakh crore, showing an 8.9% increase from ₹128.31 lakh crore in H1, 2023-24.

During April-September of 2024-25 (H1 2024-25), the Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices reached ₹87.74 lakh crore, demonstrating a 6.0% growth compared to ₹82.77 lakh crore in H1 of 2023-24. The Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices for H1, 2024-25 reached ₹153.91 lakh crore, indicating an 8.9% increase from ₹141.40 lakh crore in H1 of 2023-24.

GDP Growth 2024 Live: The Real GVA calculations for Q2 2024-25 amounted to ₹40.58 lakh crore, whilst the previous year’s Q2 figure was ₹38.42 lakh crore, reflecting a 5.6% growth. Similarly, the Nominal GVA in Q2 2024-25 reached ₹69.54 lakh crore, increasing from ₹64.35 lakh crore in Q2 2023-24, showing an 8.1% rise.

India GDP Growth 2024 Live: In the second quarter of 2024-25, the Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices reached ₹44.10 lakh crore, compared to ₹41.86 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of 2023-24, indicating a growth of 5.4%. The Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices for Q2 2024-25 stood at ₹76.60 lakh crore, up from ₹70.90 lakh crore in Q2 2023-24, demonstrating an 8.0% increase.

* The Construction industry sustained domestic steel consumption, showing growth of 7.7% in Q2 and 9.1% in H1 of FY 2024-25.

* The Tertiary sector registered 7.1% growth in Q2 of FY 2024-25, improving from 6.0% in Q2 of the previous year. The segment comprising Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting achieved 6.0% growth in Q2 of FY 2024-25, up from 4.5% in Q2, 2023-24.

* Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) demonstrated significant improvement with 6.0% growth in Q2 and 6.7% in H1 of FY 2024-25, compared to lower rates of 2.6% and 4.0%, respectively, in the previous financial year’s corresponding periods.

* Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) recovered with 4.4% growth, following three consecutive quarters of minimal or negative growth rates.

India GDP Growth 2024 Live: The Agriculture and Allied sector notably recovered, achieving a 3.5% growth rate during the second quarter of fiscal year 2024-25. This marks a significant improvement compared to the previous four quarters, which witnessed modest growth figures between 0.4% and 2.0%.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2024-25, Real GVA demonstrated a 5.6% increase, compared to the 7.7% growth observed in the corresponding quarter of the preceding fiscal year. During the same period, Nominal GVA exhibited an 8.1% growth rate, lower than the 9.3% growth recorded in the second quarter of fiscal year 2023-24.

Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 5.4% in Q2 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.1% in Q2 of FY 2023-24. Despite sluggish growth observed in Manufacturing (2.2%) and Mining & Quarrying (-0.1%) sectors in Q2 of FY 2024-25, real GVA in H1 (April-September) has recorded a growth rate of 6.2%.

GDP Growth 2024 Live: “Available high-frequency data for September and October 2024 point to a recovery in the growth momentum of the Indian economy. Headline manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted (SA)) increased to 57.5 in October 2024 from 56.5 in September 2024 due to faster growth in new orders and international sales. Similarly, owing to sharper expansion in output, new business and recovery in the growth of new export sales, services PMI recovered to 58.5 in October 2024 from a 10-month low of 57.7 in September 2024. As per the data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Association, retail sales of motor vehicles showed a strong growth of 32.1% in October 2024, led by festive demand. In September 2024, retail sales of vehicles had contracted by (-)9.3%. Within the vehicle segments, growth in two-wheeler sales was the highest at 36.3% followed by retail sales of passenger vehicles at 32.4% in October 2024. GST revenues in October 2024 grew by 8.9%, reaching INR1,87,346 crores, its second-highest monthly gross collections since its introduction in July 2017. Following a contraction of (-)0.1% in August 2024, IIP posted a growth of 3.1% in September 2024, led by a broad-based recovery in the growth of all the major sub-industries,” says EY’s November Economy Watch edition.

Ahead of the Q2 GDP data for FY25, BSE Sensex ended at 79,802.79, up 759 points or 0.96%. Today’s almost 1% rally in the stock market comes a day after the stock market crash, which wiped several lakh crore from investors’ wealth.

GDP Growth 2024 Live: “As India aims to become a Viksit, that is, developed economy by FY2048, achieving a minimum of 7%+ potential real GDP growth on a sustained basis and ensuring that actual growth remains close to this potential is critical,” says D.K. Srivastava Chief Policy Advisor, EY India.

Between September and November 2024, multiple analysts projected India’s fiscal year 2025 growth estimates, ranging from 6.5% to 7.2%. Whilst institutions such as the RBI and IMF maintain an optimistic outlook, forecasting growth rates of 7.0% or higher for FY25, potential challenges to these projections arise from the slow pace of infrastructure development through the Government of India’s investment spending.

According to India Ratings and Research’s statement, through effective expenditure management, the government is expected to achieve a fiscal deficit of 4.75 per cent in FY25, which is 0.19 per cent below the budgetary target. The agency further indicated that revenue expenditure, excluding subsidies, would be 0.12 percent of GDP lower than the budget estimate.

Devendra Kumar Pant, the agency’s chief economist and head of public finance, indicated that the government’s capital expenditures would fall short of the projected Rs 11.11 lakh crore by Rs 62,000 crore.

S&P Global Ratings has adjusted its growth projections for the Indian economy for the upcoming fiscal years downwards, citing elevated interest rates and reduced fiscal stimulus as factors affecting urban consumption.

Following the US election outcome, the rating agency’s revised Asia-Pacific economic forecast indicates India’s GDP growth will reach 6.7 percent in FY 2025-26 and 6.8 percent in FY 2026-27, lower than its earlier estimates of 6.9 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

The agency has maintained its growth forecast for FY 2024-25 at 6.8 per cent.

According to economists, private consumption, constituting approximately 60% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP), has declined in urban areas. This downturn stems from elevated food inflation, increased borrowing expenses and stagnant real wage progression despite indications of improvement in rural consumer spending.

The retail food component, which represents about half of the consumer spending basket, registered a 10.87% increase year-on-year in October, significantly diminishing household purchasing capacity.

Economist Toshi Jain from J.P. Morgan has observed that recent months have witnessed a deceleration in key economic indicators, including industrial production, fuel usage and bank lending expansion, coupled with subdued corporate financial results, which has impacted the growth trajectory.

“(Though) government spending has re-accelerated in the July-September quarter that has not prevented a slowing in high frequency data, suggesting underlying private sector momentum has softened,” she said in note earlier this week.

According to Jain’s analysis, the September quarter’s GDP expansion is projected to range between 6.3% and 6.5%.

Leading corporations in India recorded their poorest quarterly results in more than four years during September, indicating that the developing economic deceleration has started impacting business profits and investment strategies.

According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the RBI is likely to maintain its current policy interest rates in the upcoming week, considering the elevated retail inflation levels. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee retained its primary repo rate at 6.50% in its previous meeting while adjusting its policy position to “neutral.”

State officials and various economists anticipate that the economy might recover its vigour in the latter half of the fiscal year, supported by increased government expenditure following recent elections and strengthened rural consumption after an improved harvest.

According to domestic rating agency Icra, India’s real GDP growth is expected to drop to 6.5 percent in the September quarter. The agency cites adverse impacts from heavy rainfall and subdued corporate performance. Despite this decline, the agency has retained its FY25 growth forecast at 7 percent, anticipating improved economic activity in the latter half of the fiscal year.

The assessment comes amid growing concerns about economic deceleration, particularly the slowdown in urban consumption patterns. While the Reserve Bank of India maintains its growth projection at 7.2 percent for the fiscal year, most analysts anticipate it to fall below 7 percent, with numerous institutions revising their forecasts downward in recent weeks.